Less than one year until the year 2000, two seemingly small digits may turn
January 1, 2000 from a worldwide celebration into a universal nightmare. With
computers mistaking the year 2000 for 1900, virtually all businesses that use
dates will be affected. Not only will the companies be affected, but also they
are paying millions upon millions of dollars in order for computers to recognize
the difference between the years 2000 and 1900. The year 2000 computer bug is a
huge problem that our world must face. In order to explain how to solve the
"millennium bug", it is a good idea to be informed about exactly what
the year 2000 problem is. The year 2000 industry expert, Peter de Jager,
described the problem quite well. "We programmed computers to store the
date in the following format: dd/mm/yy. This only allows 2 digits for the year.
January 1, 2000 would be stored as 01/01/00. But the computer will interpret
this as January 1, 1900- not 2000" (de Jager 1997). The '19' is
"hard-coded" into computer hardware and software. Since there are only
2 physical spaces for the year in this date format, after '99', the only logical
choice is to reset the number to '00'. The year 2000 problem is unlike any other
problem in modern history for several reasons. Many computer professionals point
out some of the most important ones. Time is running out- the Year 2000 is
inevitable! The problem will occur simultaneously worldwide, time zones
withstanding. It affects all languages and platforms, hardware & software.
The demand for solutions will exceed the supply. "It is too big and too
overwhelming even for [Bill Gates and] Microsoft" (Widder 1997). Separate,
any one of these points makes Y2K, a common abbreviation for the year 2000
problem, an addition to the obstacle. Combined, they form what seems more like a
hideous monster than an insignificant bug. The impact of Y2K on society is
enormous, bringing the largest companies in the world to their knees, pleading
for a fix at nearly any cost. "The modern world has come to depend on
information as much as it has on electricity and running water. Fixing the
problem is difficult because there are [less than] two years left to correct 40
years of behavior" (de Jager 1997). “Alan Greenspan has warned that being
99 percent ready isn't enough” (Widder 1997). “Chief Economist Edward
Yardeni has said that the chances for a worldwide recession to occur because of
Y2K are at 40%” (Widder 1997). Senator Bob Benett (Republican, Utah) made a
good analogy about the potential of the problem. "In the 1970's, oil was
the energy that ran our world economy. Today it runs on the energy of
information." He later said, "To cripple the technological flow of
information throughout the world is to bring it to a virtual standstill" (Widder
1997). The potential of the problem in everyday life is alarming. Imagine making
a loan payment in 1999 for a bill that is due in 2000. The company’s computers
could interpret the '00' as 1900 and you would then be charged with 99 years of
late fees (Moffitt & Sandler 1997). If the year 2000 problem isn't solved,
there could be "no air traffic, traffic lights, no lights in your company,
companies could not produce goods, no goods delivered to the stores, stores
could not send you bills, you could not send bills to anyone else. Business
[could] come to a halt" (de Jager 1997). The costs of fixing Y2K are
staggering. The Gartner Group estimates that costs per line of code to be
between $1.50 and $2.00 (Conner 1). It is not uncommon for a single company to
have 100,000,000 lines of code (de Jager 1997). Capers Jones, an expert who has
studied software costs for over ten years, estimates total worldwide costs to be
$1,635,000,000,000 (One-trillion, 635 billion dollars) (Jones 1997). To put this
number into perspective, if five people were to spend $100 for every second of
every day, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, it would take them about 100 years
to finish the task! The year 2000 problem is not only limited to what happens
with computers between December 31, 1999 and January 1, 2000. There are several
other important dates that are a factor. Last year was considered the last point
where a large company could start fixing the problem with any hopes to finish
before the deadline. Also, all fixes should be done by January 1, 1999. There
are two major reasons for having the fixes done a year early. The first is that
there are many "special dates" during 1999 that mean special things.
For example, September 9, 1999 (09/09/99) has been commonly used as the
"expiration date" for references and data that have no expiration date
(Reid 1997). The computer required that a date must be entered in, and in many
cases, 9/9/99 was it. Also, it has been established that an entire year's cycle
of events should be used to test all of the modifications that have been made to
a system. Also, one should be sure to test to see which day of the week is
01/01/00. January 1, 1900 was a Monday, but January 1, 2000 will be a Saturday.
Other possible failure dates: 1/10/2000 (1st 9 character date), 2/29/2000 (Leap
day- the year 2000 is a leap year), 10/10/2000 (1st 10 character date), and
12-31-2000 (Day 366 of the year 2000)(GTE 1996). With the millennium
"bug" coming closer and closer to destroying the "crops" of
the world's information every day, experts from around the globe have discovered
several ways to deal with or "exterminate" this menace. Five major
solutions to the problem will now be discussed. The most straightforward
approach to solving Y2K is to simply change the 2-digit date fields to 4-digit
ones. This is considered to be the only complete solution to the problem, giving
businesses a seemingly endless range of dates for the future. This approach also
can make it much easier for the company to reformat the display screens with a
hard-coded format present (IBM 1998). Unfortunately, expanding the date field
from 2 to 4 digits has several downsides to it. The most obvious one is that in
order to convert the dates, every program and database that references to date
data will have to be modified. These modifications are mostly manual labor- not
an automatic process. Also, this requires display screens to be reformatted
manually, as well as increasing record lengths in databases (IBM 1997). Another
common method for swatting the millennium bug involves what is termed "date
logic", or "windowing techniques". This procedure involves having
a separate program to determine which millennium certain dates are in. For
example, the program could determine that if the year ends in numbers between 00
and 20, the date is in the second millennium. If the year ends in 21 to 99, the
date is in the first millennium. This technique avoids some of the massive
changes and coordination associated with the expansion approach (Martin 1997).
Date logic routines also have some downsides to them. The most important one is
that the "time window" can never be more than 100 years, and the
length of the time window cannot change in the future. Also, system performance
may slow down with this extra step for each date to be processed. On top of
that, all of the assumptions and logic must be the same for all of the programs
that will use it (IBM 1998). If and only if all three of these downsides to
windowing techniques can be overcome, should a business consider this solution?
Another way of getting around 2-digit dates involves a bridge program. This type
of solution is used to convert data from one record format to another. This
allows a system to convert 2-digit to 4-digit dates as they are needed. This
also allows a business to have very little down time for year 2000 renovations.
Instead of converting all of the data at one time, it is instead converted
gradually. Also, this technique is very cost effective and fairly easy to do
(Moffitt & Sandler 1997). Be aware that a bridge program has the potential
to ruin a computer system. By removing the bridge before all data has been
converted, 2-digit dates may become mixed with 4-digit dates, creating a larger
problem than in the beginning. Replacing the systems is probably the most
straightforward method of solving Y2K. By simply discarding old, non-compliant
systems and purchasing new systems that are year 2000 ready, a business can
eliminate the year 2000 problem altogether (Martin 1997). This avoids the hassle
of coming up with solutions to the problem, but presents the difficulties of
starting from scratch. This solution should be considered if a company’s
systems are too costly to fix, or if there are not very many systems that need
to be fixed. Another idea that incorporates the replacement idea is for one
company to merge with or buy another company that has Y2K compliant systems.
Then, the old systems can be retired (Martin 1997). The last alternative that
will be discussed is to do nothing to current computer systems that a business
may use. This is not the same as ignoring the millennium bug and hoping that it
will go away. Instead, it involves analyzing exactly what will happen to a
company’s computer systems and determining that the effect it will have is
either none or very little (Martin 1997). If this would be the case, and
employees could work around any damages that may be caused, this selection could
work. Carrying out a solution in any business involves careful planning in order
to be successful. Each of the four steps- awareness, planning, implementation,
and testing- are crucial for a company to successfully get beyond the year 2000.
Though the shortest step, the awareness step can be considered to be the most
important step. This involves a detailed description of the problem to CEO’s
and the other decision-makers for the company. Also, the management must be
informed of the impact that is likely to occur if Y2K is not solved. Without
successfully informing the company executives of the millennium bug, there is no
hope of getting funding appropriated and fixes underway (Conner 1997). The
preparation and planning phase involves finding all applications that use dates
and choosing the right combination of solutions to result in a successful
endeavor. Also, a business must consider any dependencies on outside systems-
other companies, for example. In addition to this, a "priority
schedule" should be created, to determine which systems are absolutely
necessary to the operation of the business, and to fix them in accordance to
their importance (Conner 1997). standard date interface should be agreed upon
both within the company and with all other companies, which are relied on. Also,
the first estimate of how costly and how prolonged the fixes should be done
(Conner 1997). The implementation phase is probably the most tedious phase of
year 2000 compliance. This involves taking proposed solutions and incorporating
them into a business’ computer systems. Depending on which solutions are
chosen, and how the solutions affect everyday business, a company’s commerce
could be crippled due to the need for various systems to be down at all times
(Moffitt & Sandler 1997). Testing the solutions may be seen as an
unimportant phase in the conversion process. The rewards seem few, and the costs
of are high. However, testing solutions is the only way to ensure that a
business will flow smoothly into the 21st century. This procedure involves
making sample databases and records to verify that the fixes were made
correctly, and that all systems work correctly. During this phase, a few
glitches will most likely be found, and correcting these will be relatively
easy. There are two common approaches to testing the solutions. The first
involves making sure the systems work correctly in the 20th century, testing the
computers for the 21st century, and then putting the systems back into everyday
use. An advantage of this method is that all of the tests are done at the same
times, allowing quicker feedback. The downside is that the amount of down time
will be fairly high. The other approach is the same as the first, except
switching the second and third items. The systems are first put back into
production, and then they are tested for year 2000 compliance while they are
ensuring the flow of business at the same time. The advantage of this method is
that down time is much shorter. However, getting results will take a longer time
(Pollner 1998). In conclusion, as the year 2000 comes closer and closer,
companies are losing precious time in order to swat the millennium bug. The
deadline is fixed. The price of survival is high and the only reward is the hope
of continuing to operate in the worlds of commerce and industry. Businesses that
continue into the next millennium will enjoy the happiness of existence.
Companies that fail to act now will probably crumble under their own weight.
"The alternative to addressing the year 2000 will be going out of
business" (Moffitt & Sandler 1997). Year 2000 is coming.