Greenhouse gases (chlorofluorocarbons, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
etc.)let heat in but stop it from going back out - like a windshield in a parked
car. At our current rate of creating these gases by industry, cars and burning
fossil fuels, scientists predict a temperature increase of 4 to 9 degrees F by
2050. (9 degrees F separates today's average temperatures from the last ice
age.) The United Nations Panel on Climate Change recommends that we immediately
cut our use of fossil fuels by at least half. To prevent the current rate from
increasing, we would have to cut by 60%. This same panel projects that by 2050
over a million more people dying each year from malaria because of higher
mosquito populations due to global warming. Already yellow and dengue fever
bearing mosquitoes are found over 3000' higher than their normal range in South
America. Other predicted results of global warming include expanding deserts,
forest fires, heat waves, crop failure, erosion, mud slides, mass extinction of
plants and animals, sea level increases causing flooding and damage to coastal
aquifers. The US with c. 5% of the world's population creates 25% of the 7
billion tons of carbon dioxide that causes 50% of the global warming trend. Five
tons per capita per year! US oil consumption is now the highest since 1979.
Since 1988, insurance companies paid 17 multi billion dollar weather-related
claims. There had never been one even as high as $1 billion before 1988. Before
1900, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was stable at 280 parts per million. The
concentration now is over 360 and the increase rate has doubled since 1958. 1995
was globally the hottest year in over 100 years and the driest in the UK for
over 300 years. The green house effect gas and the global warming It is said,
"if the carbon dioxide increases, the Earth becomes hot." By what
mechanism does this happen? The gas which absorbs the infra-red lays such as
carbon dioxide, water vapor, and so on, is called "the green house effect
gas". Though these gases are contained in the atmosphere by less than one
percent, the temperature of the atmosphere becomes -18°C on average if they are
entirely lost from the atmosphere. If the green house effect gases are contained
in the atmosphere, while the solar radiation is not absorbed by these gases and
reaches the Earth surface and warms it, the infra-red radiation emitted from the
Earth surface is absorbed by these gases and the atmospheric temperature rises
correspondingly. At present, since the averaged atmospheric temperature is 15°C,
the green house effect gas has the effect of warming the atmosphere from -18°C
to 15°C, i.e., 33°C. If these green house effect gases continue increasing,
the amount of absorption of the infra-red lays increases and the atmospheric
temperature may rise correspondingly. This is why the problem of the global
warming is raised. Schematic view of the green house effect Trend of the green
house effect gases Is the green house effect gases actually increasing? The
answer is "YES". It has been clarified that the carbon dioxide is
increasing since the industrial revolution. It is known that the concentration
of the carbon dioxide has fluctuated for the past one hundred-thousand years,
especially during the ice age etc. However, after the industrial revolution, it
has been increasing by the rate higher than that in the past. Moreover, the
increasing rate is becoming higher in recent years. Besides the carbon dioxide,
there are some other green house effect gases which are increasing in
concentration due to human activities; the methane, the freon gases, the carbon
monoxide, and the tropospheric ozone(*). (*) The stratospheric ozone around the
20km height has the function of absorbing the ultra-violet rays. And if it
decreases, the ultra-violet rays which reach to the Earth surface increase,
which has a bad effect on living things. On the other hand, the tropospheric
ozone has the function of absorbing the infra-red rays and acts as a green house
effect gas. Trend of the atmospheric temperature around the Earth surface. While
the green house effect gases are actually increasing, is the atmospheric
temperature around the land surface increasing in accordance with this? The
atmospheric temperature is affected complicatedly by various factors such as the
ocean or the Earth surface. Thus, the annual mean temperature of the whole
atmosphere fluctuates in various time scales which range from a few years to
more than several decades. Looking at the data from 1880 to 1994, we can see
that it is increasing by the rate of 0.6°C/100yr in a long range. However we
have to examine quantitatively whether this increasing tendency is due to the
increase of the green house effect gases or it is part of a variability on some
longer time scale. The problem of the global warming If the atmospheric
temperature near the land surface rises in the whole globe, there is a
possibility that it has serious effects to the human life. It is considered that
the following climate changes may occur due to the global warming. ·
Desertification in the dry area and in the semi-dry area advances. ·
Concentrated precipitation increases. · Sea level rises due to the thermal
expansion of sea water. · Snowing area and frozen soil reduce. By these, it is
considered that the natural environments are affected as follows: · Forests
degenerate (especially in the semi-dry area). · Zonal climate belts shift
several hundred kilometers to the pole. · Species which cannot adapt to the
changing environments extinct. · The coastlines change. It is feared that they
have bad effects on the human life socially and economically as follows: ·
Effects on agriculture, stock raising, and forestry. · Effects on using water
(increase of flood and shortage of water). · Immigration of residents near the
sea coast and on the small islands. · Destruction of the port facilities. ·
Destabilization of topography in the frozen-soil area; increase of erosion and
landslide. In order to avoid these beforehand, it is necessary to predict the
change of climate when the green house effect gases increase and to consider a
counterplan among all society.